本文已被:浏览 41次 下载 59次
Received:October 16, 2025 Published Online:July 30, 2026
Received:October 16, 2025 Published Online:July 30, 2026
中文摘要: 目的 评估代谢指标与肿瘤标志物结合影像学对胰腺癌肝转移的辅助诊断价值,并构建列线图模型以提高影像学未明确诊断时的识别能力。方法 回顾性选择2019年1月至2025年8月于南京大学医学院附属鼓楼医院确诊的胰腺癌患者共255例,其中肝转移组46例和无肝转移组209例。所有患者按7∶3比例随机分为训练集(n=177,肝转移34 例)和验证集(n=78,肝转移12 例)。收集既往影像学(CT/MRI)资料及常规实验室指标[血脂、糖化血红蛋白(HbA1C)、肿瘤标志物、肝酶等],在训练集中通过logistic 回归筛选独立相关因素,结合影像学信息构建联合列线图模型,并采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线、决策曲线在训练集和验证集中评估模型性能。结果 肝转移组患者的低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、HbA1C、乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)水平、癌胚抗原(CEA)>10 ng/mL 患者比例及CA125>30.2 u/mL 患者比例高于无转移组(P<0.05)。训练集中多因素分析显示:高LDL-C(OR=2.449,95%CI:1.085~5.525,P=0.031)、高HbA1C(OR=1.625,95%CI:1.107~2.384,P=0.013)及CA125>30.2 u/mL(OR=3.540,95%CI:1.006~12.450,P=0.049)为胰腺癌肝转移的独立危险因素。基于上述因子与影像学构建的列线图模型在训练集中表现良好[曲线下面积(AUC)为0.961(95%CI:0.907~1.000),灵敏度为0.899,特异度为0.944],优于单纯影像学诊断(AUC=0.806)。验证集中模型的AUC 为0.907(95%CI:0.779~1.000),灵敏度为0.778,特异度为0.958;校准曲线显示预测值与实际发生率一致性较好,决策曲线分析表明在较宽阈值区间内列线图模型的净临床获益更高。结论 胰腺癌患者中LDL-C、HbA1C水平升高及CA125>30.2 u/mL与肝转移相关,基于这些指标并联合影像学建立的列线图模型可显著提高肝转移的诊断准确性,特别是在影像学结果不典型或病理采样有限的患者中。
Abstract:Objective To evaluate the auxiliary diagnostic value of metabolic indicators and tumor markers combined with imaging in liver metastasis from pancreatic cancer,and to construct a nomogram model to improve diagnostic accuracy of radiologically indeterminate lesions. Methods A total of 255 patients with pancreatic cancer confirmed at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University Medical School between January 2019 and August 2025 were retrospectively enrolled,including 46 patients with liver metastasis and 209 without. All cases were randomly divided into a training set(n=177,34 with liver metastasis)and a validation set(n=78,12 with liver metastasis)at a ratio of 7∶3. Clinical information,including CT/MRI imaging and routine laboratory data[lipid profile,glycated hemoglobin(HbA1C),tumor markers,liver enzymes],was collected. Independent associated factors were identified in the training set through logistic regression analysis,and a combined nomogram model integrating these factors with imaging information was constructed,and its performance was assessed in both sets using ROC analysis,calibration,and decision curve analysis. Results Patients with liver metastasis had significantly higher levels of low - density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C),HbA1C,lactate dehydrogenase(LDH),as well as higher proportion of patients with carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA)>10 ng/mL and CA125>30.2 u/mL compared with those without metastasis(P<0.05). Multivariate analysis of the training set identified that elevated LDL-C(OR=2.449,95%CI:1.085-5.525,P=0.031),elevated HbA1C(OR=1.625,95%CI:1.107-2.384,P=0.013),and CA125>30.2 u/mL(OR=3.540,95%CI:1.006-12.450,P=0.049)were independent predictors of liver metastasis. The nomogram incorporating these factors and imaging information demonstrated excellent performance in the training set[area under the curve(AUC)=0.961,95%CI:0.907-1.000;sensitivity 89.9%,specificity 94.4%],and outperformed imaging alone(AUC=0.806). In the validation set,the model achieved an AUC of 0.907(95%CI:0.779-1.000),with sensitivity of 77.8% and specificity of 95.8%. Calibration curves indicated good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes,and decision curve analysis confirmed that the nomogram model provided a higher net clinical benefit across a wider range of threshold values. Conclusion Elevated LDL-C,HbA1C,and CA125>30.2 u/mL are significantly associated with liver metastasis in pancreatic cancer. A nomogram model integrating these indicators with imaging findings can markedly improve diagnostic accuracy,particularly in patients with atypical imaging results or limited pathological sampling.
keywords: Pancreatic cancer Liver metastasis Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol Glycated hemoglobin Carbohydrate antigen 125 Nomogram
文章编号: 中图分类号:R735.9 文献标志码:A
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(82473117);南京鼓楼医院临床研究专项资金项目(2021-LCYJ-DBZ-03)
引用文本:
